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Humanity May Soon Face a Shortage of Fertile Lands

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In the modern world, the problem of declining fertile lands is becoming increasingly relevant and alarming. This phenomenon affects not only economic aspects but also sociocultural, environmental, and health-related concerns. The loss and depletion of remaining fertile soils lead to a decrease in agricultural crop yields and a reduction of nutrient content in these crops, which, in turn, results in food shortages alongside deterioration in human health. Statistics show that, over recent decades, human impact on nature has been predominantly negative.

The production of 95% of agricultural crops depends on the quality of the topsoil.

However, experts warn that over the past 150 years, half of the fertile soils have already disappeared, and the remaining portion could be exhausted within the next 60 years.

In the United States, a country known for its active and modern agriculture, arable lands are disappearing 10 times faster than they are recovering.

As noted by The Guardian, intensive farming is the primary cause of topsoil loss.

On farms where excessive amounts of fertilizers are used, soils become more vulnerable to the effects of rain and wind.

Their degradation is further accelerated by frequent tillage, particularly with moldboard plows, the absence of cover crops, monoculture farming (growing only one or two crop species), and excessive pesticide use.

All of these characteristics define modern intensive agriculture. The deterioration of fertile land is also driven by factors such as groundwater pollution, excessive deforestation, and destruction of natural ecosystems.

Professor Elena Alexandrovna Dergacheva of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) emphasizes that the rapid decline of fertile soils already has a significant impact on the populations and economies of various countries. Currently, only 5% of biospheric soils remain in the United States, a country renowned for its intensive agricultural practices. According to Professor Dergacheva, the primary cause for this alarming phenomenon lies in the excessive reliance on intensive agriculture, which results in the rapid depletion of fertile soils.

Even in the early 20th century, Russian scientist Elena Aleksandrovna Dergacheva notes, it was clear that humanity’s intensive exploitation of natural resources would increasingly affect the state of the environment. Data presented in an article by M. Stroganova indicates that over the 10,000-year history of agriculture, up to 1.3 billion hectares of fertile land have been lost. Over the past century alone, an additional 0.7 billion hectares have become severely degraded. According to statistics, in the 1920s, around 3 billion tons of humus annually were lost from agricultural lands due to erosion and washed into the world's oceans. By the 1970s, this figure increased to more than 25 billion tons per year, and by the beginning of the 21st century, the loss had reached up to 30 billion tons annually.

Furthermore, studies published in an article by M. Stroganova indicate that since the beginning of agriculture approximately 10,000 years ago, humanity has cumulatively lost about 1.3 billion hectares of fertile soils. Currently, we continue to lose these lands at alarming rates, driven by wind and water erosion, ultimately leading to the deposition of fertile topsoil into oceans.

Professor Dergacheva further emphasizes that the problem of soil loss is closely related to ecological crises, biodiversity reduction, and disruption of water cycles. In Germany, for example, the population of flying insects has declined by approximately 80% over the last 30 years, subsequently resulting in decreased bird populations.

During one of their speeches, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and President of the UN General Assembly Tijjani Muhammad-Bande emphasized that the health of the planet directly influences human well-being. “Right now, our planet is sick,” Guterres stated.

At present, more than 75% of the Earth's soils are degraded. "Each year we lose millions of hectares of fertile land, resulting in losses amounting to approximately 10 percent of the global GDP," Muhammad-Bande noted. Both senior officials highlighted that today at least 3.2 billion people suffer from the consequences of desertification and drought.

At present, more than 75% of the Earth’s soils are degraded. “Each year we lose millions of hectares of fertile land, resulting in losses amounting to approximately 10 percent of the global GDP,” Muhammad-Bande noted. Both senior officials highlighted that today at least 3.2 billion people suffer from the consequences of desertification and drought.

Soil erosion can occur naturally in various climatic conditions; however, 70% of all soil erosion results from unsustainable human activities. It is predicted that by 2050, this figure could rise to 90%. It is also expected that by 2030, the use of land for industrial purposes will increase by 35%, equivalent to more than 115 million hectares—an area roughly the size of Colombia.

The current rate of soil degradation threatens future generations’ ability to meet their basic needs. By 2050, the world’s population will surpass nine billion, and feeding this population will only be possible by improving the quality of crops and increasing yields on healthy soils.

Due to climate change caused by deforestation and industrial emissions, the productivity of major agricultural crops—from soybeans to oil palms—is changing significantly. In many regions, crop yields have already sharply declined, with the poorest regions of the planet suffering the most.

Desertification and droughts contribute to increased poverty, hunger, social and economic tensions, forced migration, and unfavorable climatic changes.

In arid regions, desertification often leads to ecological disasters. A notable example is the drying up of the Aral Sea—once the fourth-largest inland sea in the world—which drastically altered the lives of millions of people, destroyed regional social and ecological systems, and led to the extinction of many species of animals and fish.

Experts emphasize that governments must urgently implement measures to protect and restore soils. Otherwise, humanity will face catastrophic consequences.

Examples can be observed in Syria and Libya. During the Roman Empire, vast quantities of grain were produced in these territories, but unsustainable agricultural practices have turned once fertile lands into deserts.

In the context of increasing global resource scarcity, it is essential to consider how to preserve the remaining fertile soils. Humanity already possesses knowledge capable of halting desertification and addressing the issues of hunger, climate change, and migration. Promoting environmentally sustainable agricultural technologies could become one of the critical steps in overcoming this crisis. Restoring degraded lands will ensure food stability and security, create employment opportunities, restore biodiversity, and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

An Example of Problem-Solving in the USSR

In the Soviet Union, valuable practical experience was gained in protecting and restoring soils from erosion during the implementation of the State Plan for the Transformation of Nature. Today, this initiative holds significant social, scientific, and international importance. It serves as an example of a responsible approach to preserving lands and soil fertility for current and future generations, based upon scientific achievements. The foundation of this plan was an integrated program for creating agricultural landscapes and reclamation systems, employing a scientifically systematic approach to research and management.

After the conclusion of the Great Patriotic War (1941–1945), large-scale state projects began to be implemented across the country. On October 20, 1948, the USSR Council of Ministers and the Central Committee of the VKP(b) issued Resolution No. 3960 regarding a plan for establishing extensive protective forest plantations, introducing grass-field crop rotations, and constructing ponds to ensure sustainable and high yields in the steppe and forest-steppe regions of the European part of the USSR. The implementation of the plan was scheduled from 1949 to 1965.

The objectives of the State Plan for the Transformation of Nature included the following strategic goals:

  • Creating conditions for developing a diversified agricultural economy with an adequate balance of crop production, livestock farming, and other sectors, ensuring food security and significantly increasing food production;
  • Securing consistently high yields;
  • Improving soil fertility;
  • Effectively combating drought;
  • Protecting soils from erosion and deflation, preventing soil washout and wind erosion, and stabilizing sandy lands;
  • Optimizing land resource use.

Results of Plan Implementation

Within the first five years of the plan’s implementation, more than 2.3 million hectares of forests were planted. An ecological framework consisting of protective forest strips was created on agricultural lands; slopes of ravines and water reservoirs were greened, and more than 13,000 ponds and reservoirs were constructed.

The introduction of field and forage crop rotation systems in collective farms (kolkhozes) and state farms (sovkhozes) led to substantial increases in yields: grain yields rose by 25–30%, vegetable yields by 50–75%, and grass yields by 100–200%. This significantly strengthened the feed base for livestock farming. Milk production in 1951 increased by 65% compared to 1948.

Nevertheless, the State Plan for the Transformation of Nature, aimed at preserving land resources for future generations, was never fully completed. After Joseph Stalin’s death in 1953, the implementation of the plan was halted, and the new leadership adopted a different approach to managing natural resources.

You can learn more about the “Great Plan for the Transformation of Nature” by following the link:…

Useful Resources:

  1. https://scientificrussia.ru/articles/celovecestvu-mozet-ne-hvatit-plodorodnyh-zemel-professor-ran-e-dergaceva
  2. https://news.un.org/ru/story/2020/06/1380302
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